Are Earth’s Tipping Points a blind spot in the EU's risk preparedness?
With global warming currently at 1.5°C and Europe warming faster than any other continent, Europe is might be facinga blind spot in its regional security by not yet addressing emerging governance needs for the impacts of tipping points. The latest IPCC Assessment Report (AR6) warns that an increase in global temperature of 1.5°C could destabilise fundamental elements of the Earth System (e.g. poles, large glaciers and permafrost; global ocean currents and monsoons; large tropical and boreal biomes).
So far, the EU has been leading on preventive actions to avoid the crossing of tipping thresholds (e.g. stringent greenhouse gas emission mitigation targets, tackling deforestation, the promotion of carbon removals). The preparedness of governance of the impacts of tipping points includes better early warning monitoring systems, tipping point climate risk assessments, resilience building and adaptive responses once tipping points are crossed.
To trigger the discussion, the Joint Research Centre organised a workshop: “Raising awareness of Earth System Tipping Points: Implications for EU Governance” where policy makers met with the Tipping Point Community represented by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the University of Oslo. It hosted around 50 climate and social scientists, representatives of the worlds of finance (ECB/ World Bank), insurance and governance (policy DGs), international organisations (World Climate Research Program, IPCC), the EEA and communication experts.
The workshop aimed to raise awareness on the emergent threats that the Earth’s Tipping Points pose to Europe and the need to initiate discussions on anticipatory governance. After taking stock of the current state-of-the-art of climate and socioeconomic modelling for six Earth tipping systems that directly impact Europe, the workshop discussed the relevance of tipping points for the existing risk governance frameworks and the adaptation strategy of the EU. Novel risk assessment methods such as exploratory scenario studies, dedicated workshops and outreach events were identified as follow-up steps from this workshop.
The JRC is preparing a policy brief to summarise the outcomes of the workshop. Researchers who are interested in further information please follow us or contact the JRC.
