The INFORM report 2023: understanding global crisis risks and key priorities

The INFORM 2023 report emphasizes a substantial rise in global crisis risk over the past decade that culminates in the past two years.

A surge in crises and their severity in 2022

In 2022, the number of crises increased by 18.5%, rising from 115 in January to 136 in December. During the same period, the global average severity score of active crises saw a slight decrease due to the low severity of several new crises.
Ten crises, including the drought in Kenya, violence in Sudan's Darfur and Kordofan regions, the conflict in Ukraine, and cyclone seasons in Madagascar and Mozambique, started or deteriorated in 2022. Displacement situations also worsened, particularly in Costa Rica, Ecuador, Libya, and Malaysia.
Looking ten years back from 2022 (using the INFORM Risk tool), the report also finds that there has been a global increase in the risk of humanitarian crises. Despite improvements in coping capacity, however they were not enough to keep pace with the large increases in the number of people exposed to hazards and their vulnerability .

Climate change and socio-economic trends

Climate change and socio-economic changes are expected to continue increasing the risk of crises.  Low-income countries in Africa, Central and South America, and Western and Southern Asia will likely be most affected. 
INFORM Climate Change – a specific INFORM tool - looks at the future risk of crisis taking into account two scenario combination  that represent significantly different possible futures. These are considered plausible by researchers and are referred to as the optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions and socio-economic development. 
Under the pessimistic scenarios , the results show more than 1.6 billion people might live – by 2050 - in countries with large increases  in the risk of humanitarian crises and disasters. Even in more optimistic scenarios, the number of people impacted by crises and the associated aid costs will significantly increase by 2050.

Looking ahead and anticipating crises

The 2023 INFORM report underscores the importance of proactive actions and strategic investments on climate mitigation, climate adaptation, disaster risk reduction and sustainable development , especially for regions that have struggled to reduce crisis risks in the past and will have even more difficulties to cope with the impact of climate change and socio economic trends. 

The report highlights the need for a global collaborative effort to build resilience and reduce vulnerability, particularly in low and lower-middle income countries if they don’t (have the means to) reduce risk. 

By leveraging the insights and data from the INFORM Report, countries, humanitarian organizations, and stakeholders can make informed decisions, prioritize resources, and implement effective strategies to mitigate future risks. Actions in climate mitigation, climate adaptation, disaster risk reduction and sustainable development are essential.