Long-term drought in the La Plata Basin: agriculture yields and energy production at risk
Standardised Precipitation Index with accumulation period from September year-1 to May of the year under analysis (SPI-9 from 2019 to 2022) based on ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis. Reference baseline: 1991-2020.
A report jointly prepared by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), CEMADEN, CIMA Foundation and SISSA, has just been released. The “Extreme and long-term drought in the La Plata Basin: event evolution and impact assessment until September 2022” report provides an update to last year's The 2019-2021 extreme drought episode in the La Plata Basin, with an emphasis on the most recent drought conditions in the region, their evolution, underlying causes, and impacts. The scientists behind the study stress the importance of regional efforts for monitoring, forecasting, and mitigating drought effects. The detailed assessment of the total damage and identification of all the sectors affected can only be performed after the end of the drought episode.
Severe Drought Persists in the Parana-La Plata Basin in South America
The report concludes that the Parana-La Plata Basin in South America is going through the worst drought since 1944. This region usually enjoys a rainy season from October to April. However, below-average records of rainfall for the past two hydrological years triggered dry conditions across south-eastern Brazil, northern Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay. A weak South American Monsoon exacerbated the situation further.
Agricultural Impact
The drought in the Paraná-La Plata Basin is causing damage to agriculture with lower crop yields, particularly for soybeans and corn, impacting global crop markets. The drought persisted in 2022 in the Pantanal region, with dry weather conditions persisting at the end of September 2022 and below-average precipitation. Scientists found the worst soil moisture and vegetation conditions in the lower part of the La Plata Basin, particularly in its southernmost areas. However, they observed some recovery in the upper and central parts of the basin.
Drought Impact on Energy Production
The La Plata Basin is one of the main producers of hydroelectric power in the world and hydropower is the primary source of renewable energy in South America. Dams and hydroelectric power plants in the La Plata Basin meet about 55% of the energy demand of countries in the basin. The prolonged drought is having a sizeable impact on energy production and causing a decrease in hydropower generation impacting Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia.
Prolonged Drought Predicted for the La Plata Basin
According to seasonal models, there is a high probability of negative precipitation anomalies over the La Plata Basin resulting from negative sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific associated with La Niña conditions. These are likely to persist for the third consecutive spring and summer, as last seen in 1998-2001. Additionally, long-term climate variability patterns, such as Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), are in a phase that has increased the risk of drought in the La Plata Basin between 2019-2020 until now. These decadal predictions suggest that both PDO and AMO dynamics will likely continue to result in lower precipitation in the La Plata Basin.
Background
The Joint Research Centre produces real-time drought information through the European and Global Drought Observatories (EDO and GDO), as part of the provision of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS). The information generated is displayed in the observatories’ map viewers and ad hoc reports are produced to cover severe drought events.
Related content
The European Commission’s joint report: The 2019-2021 extreme drought episode in La Plata Basin
The European Commission’s: Drought in South America – 10 years overview
